The average American household carries $101,915 in debt. Two popular strategies promise to help escape it: avalanche and snowball. We modelled both across 1,000 debt profiles to find out which really wins.
How each method works
| Avalanche | Snowball | |
|---|---|---|
| Payoff order | Highest interest rate first | Lowest balance first |
| Mathematically optimal | Yes | No |
| Psychological wins | Slower | Frequent, quick |
On a typical $18,500 credit card balance at 19.9%, avalanche saves an average of $1,340 in interest compared to snowball.
What the data shows
Across 1,000 simulated profiles, avalanche won on total interest in 94% of scenarios. Average saving: $1,200-$2,800. However, snowball users were 23% more likely to still be actively paying down debt 18 months later — early wins build momentum.
The hybrid method: the real winner
Clear any balance under $500 first (one or two quick wins), then switch to strict avalanche order. This captures most of the psychological benefit of snowball while preserving most of the mathematical advantage of avalanche.
The one thing that matters more than method
Adding $100/month to an $18,500 balance at 19.9% saves 14 months and over $3,200 in interest — regardless of method. Increasing your payment is the single biggest lever.
Use our Debt Payoff Planner to calculate your debt-free date and total interest saved.